10 biggest world threats of 2025, ranked | Ian Bremmer

It's 2025, and I know a lot of people are anxious about where the world is heading

about our global order or lack thereof. There is so much more uncertainty and volatility

in a world that is moving fast, with big countries that are more at odds with each other

and with fewer rules of the road that leaders, companies, and societies are adhering to

Every year, for about 20 years now, we've put out this top risks report, and I'd like to take you through our top risks for 2025

Number 10, Mexican standoff. The U.S.-Mexico relationship is under a lot of pressure in the coming year, more than in the first Trump administration

There's more that the U.S. wants the Mexicans to change, demands that the Mexicans change

You've got a larger trade deficit between the U.S. and Mexico. You have lots of Chinese goods that are going through Mexico into the United States that the U.S. isn't happy with

You've got, of course, a continued illegal migration issue with lots of people coming into the U.S.

including through Mexico from other countries around the world, especially Latin America

and you've got a lot of fentanyl coming into the U.S., creating a bigger drug crisis

Claudia Sheinbaum, the president in Mexico, is aware of all of this and wants to come to a deal with the United States

But it's going to be more challenging than she thinks, in part because there's so many issues

in part because Trump has consolidated power to a much greater degree this time around

and also in part because her former president, AMLO, had a pretty good personal relationship with Trump

And Scheinbaum, as a scientist with a PhD in environmental studies from Berkeley, has all the demographics that you know are going to be really hard for Trump to get on with personally

Plus, the peso is in trouble in Mexico because of hangover policies from that last AMLO administration, constitutional reforms like judicial reform that the markets don't like

So they don't have a lot of flexibility to get things wrong

Ultimately, the U.S.-Mexico relationship will stabilize again, but this year is going to be challenging for them

Number nine, ungoverned spaces. In a world that lacks global leadership, actors can act with impunity

and a bunch of places that you would like to have proper governance don't

Now, it's not a high-level risk because so many of these places don't have big knock-on effects

on the major economies in the world, but they're growing and it deserves our attention

In the Middle East, we're talking about places like Syria with a difficult time for HGS to consolidate power

now that Assad is gone. Yemen, of course, with a civil war

Gaza following the war with Israel, but still dealing with an occupation

You've got Sudan with tens of millions literally tens of millions facing severe distress on the ground following their war across the entire

Sahel in Africa, Myanmar in Southeast Asia, and even in America's backyard, Haiti. Larger and

larger numbers of territories with populations that are incapable of being governed properly

and stably. That will create more radicalism. It will lead to more forced migration around the

world. There's also ungoverned spaces outside of individual countries, like in near-Earth orbit

and under the sea, where lots of countries and non-governmental actors are also acting with

impunity and refusing to accept international governance and international cooperation. That's why we see the Red Sea is less passable than it used to be as the Houthis are popping rockets off at those trying to go through

It's, you know, while you look at cables for fiber and gas pipelines that suddenly get blown up by the Russians or by others

it's why you're going to have difficulties with potential satellite crashes as more and more companies and governments are putting up rockets into the atmosphere

but aren't coordinating with others as to where they are and how they're operating

All of that means less public goods, less globalization that works for the benefit of all

more fragmentation and more conflict. That's risk number nine. Number eight, AI unbound

And of course, this is the most exciting new technological development in the world

unlocking a massive amount of human capital and industrial innovation. All good things

But that money, investment, the energy, the compute that is going into developing AI is far

far greater and faster than the regulatory environment to try to ensure that it's channeled

for productive and sustainable outcomes The early stage regulations that we saw are going to be unwound to a degree The executive order on AI by the Biden administration done together with systemically important AI companies

in the United States, will likely be unwound by the Trump administration

In Europe, there is a lot of regret over focusing too much on regulation

not enough on growth and innovation. The US had a nascent conversation with the Chinese

on trying to ensure that we don't get involved in an AI arms race

that's probably going to break down. And it wasn't going very far last year

Anyway, the Americans, the Europeans, have a transatlantic dialogue on technology and economy

That's probably going to fall apart too. You know, the best way to look at this is the Brits last year

had a summit that was going to plant their flag on how they were going to matter in AI

It was called the AI Safety Summit. This year, they're rebranding it. It's the AI Action Summit. All sounds great, except for when you're using AI in ways that are dangerous

And that will be true between the Americans and the Chinese as they start fighting in a new potential cold war around these issues

It's going to very quickly become confrontation. and also as individual actors use open source AI to figure out how to disrupt markets or to

assassinate people. This is coming faster than you think, and we're only going to realize it

when the crises hit. The number seven risk is beggar thy world. The United States and China

the two largest economies in the world, are exporting a lot of their economic and political

concerns, and it's going to hit other countries harder. What do I mean by that? Well, the Americans

are unhappy with how globalization has been running. They want to ensure that there are

tariffs on other countries that get more production back into the United States. And they also want

their allies to work a lot less with China as they move to decouple that economic relationship

The Chinese have a serious problem with economic growth. It's substandard, and they're

consumer model has really underperformed. That means that the only part of the Chinese economy

that's going gangbusters is their export manufacturing, which is very cheap and is

leading to trade surpluses with pretty much everybody. You get caught in between that with

the U.S.-China relationship in itself is more fractious, other countries are going to face

difficulties. That's on the back of the pandemic with interest rates that are higher, with

indebtedness levels that are higher, they're going to be extremely constrained. We've already

started to see this with Brazil that had some difficulties just in basic fiscal management

and the markets punished them dearly, and their currency took a big hit. Emerging markets and

developed countries around the world are facing more challenging economic environment because the

Americans and the Chinese are engaged in beggar-thy-world policies. Number six, Iran on the ropes

The biggest risk in the Middle East this year is Iran. The wars in Lebanon with Hezbollah

in Gaza with Hamas are largely winding down, should effectively end this year. But Iran is

the principal enemy of the United States and of Israel, and it's increasingly likely that they're

going to do something about it. Iran's very weak. They've lost their axis of resistance

essentially the empire that they had to project power across the region. Hamas has lost. Hezbollah

has lost. The Syrian regime has been overthrown. And what that leaves them with is a very poorly

functioning economy. It leaves them with an 85-year-old ailing supreme leader with no clear

successor and a very rest of an angry population. Now, their military is willing to use force

to ensure that stability is maintained, but the people are getting angrier, their story is getting

worse. Reminds me a lot of the Soviet Union, not in 1991, but back in 89 when the wall fell. And

this time around, there are some countries that are prepared to nudge them towards falling. Israel

sees this as a unique opportunity to take the Iranian capabilities out with an understanding

that Iran can't do much to Israel in response. And the Americans are certainly thinking about

helping them, especially when we talk about their nuclear program. So we're going to see more risk

with Iran. We'll certainly see Trump putting much more economic pressure. The Israelis engaging in

more espionage and targeted attacks. Whether or not that leads to all-out war is an open question

But when you look at the Middle East, the biggest risk in 2025 is Iran

Risk number five, Russia still rogue. There is a reasonably high likelihood, more than 50-50, that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine does actually come into effect this year

President-elect Trump has said he can get it done in 24 hours. He exaggerates occasionally

It will take longer than that. But he will put a lot of pressure on Ukraine and Russia to do a deal or else

And he will have support from most of the NATO allies in getting that deal done The Ukrainians don want to lose aid from the Americans The Russians don want to be facing tougher sanctions And both of them know that they need a breather because they running

out of capacity to continue to fight this war effectively. So that all sounds good. Why is it a

risk? It's a risk because a ceasefire is not a breakthrough settlement. And the Russians will

still be under massive sanction from the West. They're still going to be seeing a Ukraine armed

to the teeth with continued support from the Europeans and the United States. And Russia will

still be engaged in asymmetric fighting against NATO states on the front lines, like the Baltics

like Poland, like the Nordics. And here we're talking about not only efforts to destabilize

those countries by using telegram and paying off people to engage in arson and other sort of

vandalism and even assassinations, but also willingness to attack critical infrastructure. Plus, the Russians are doing their damnedest to continue to have influence in their own near

abroad countries that are more aligned with the West, like Georgia, like Moldova. All of this

means that Russia, not as much of a risk as we saw in the teeth of the war in 2024, but a very

significant one in 2025. Risk number four is Trumponomics. We're talking about two big areas

First is tariffs. Trump really believes that tariffs are a consistent policy to be used to benefit the U.S. economy and national security

It's one of the few ideological policies that he has held firmly, not only from his first presidency, but frankly, for his entire business career

And that means we are going to see an implementation of those tariffs against China as well as against allies

Some will cut deals, but not all of them, particularly not the Chinese

And the economic impact will be significant. Secondarily, he was elected on the back of removing illegal immigrants from the U.S

And he absolutely intends to get that done. Will it be 15 to 20 million

I doubt it. But a million in the first year, very plausible

And that is going to be supported by a lot of Americans, but it's also going to cause

costs because these illegal immigrants are consumers. They're taxpayers, Medicare, Social Security, local taxes

Also, they're inexpensive, and the labor replacement will be inflationary. That's good for a lot of American workers, but it's problematic for the economy

So both of those are risks that we're going to see play out over 2025. Now, there are also things Trump will do that are market positive

For example, we're going to have a rollback in intrusive regulatory policy

Taxes will also be extended at a low level. Those 2017 tax cuts for corporations and for high net worth individuals, that will continue

But those aren't enough to have an impact that will overshadow the challenges of tariffs and illegal immigration deportations

in part because the low-hanging fruit has already been picked in the first term of Trump

And also because the macroeconomic conditions are much more difficult this time around

You already have American corporate stocks trading at much higher multiples. Debt levels are higher

Inflation is higher. It's just going to be harder to move the needle

So on balance, Trumponomics, market negative for 2025. Risk number three is U.S.-China breakdown

These are the two most important economies in the world. It's the most important geopolitical relationship in the world. There's no trust between the Americans and the Chinese. That's not new. But the relationship has been managed in a comparatively stable way over the last year

In fact, since Biden and Xi Jinping met at the Woodside Summit in California one year ago, November, 25 different high level channels of regular engagement of the U.S. and China have been set into motion

That's not where we're heading with the Trump administration. Much higher desire to hit the Chinese hard

hawkish orientation towards China on technology, on trade, and on security from almost all of the

appointees that Trump has in key ministries on the economic side, as well as national security

Now, Trump always likes to consider if a deal is possible. You saw that even with Kim Jong-un

when he was president the first time around. Is he willing to talk to Xi Jinping, who he says is a

very smart, very strong leader that he respects a lot? Of course he will. But I don't believe

that what the Chinese will offer, like buying some more soybeans or some Boeings, if there were any

available, is adequate or sufficient to get a deal done. Elon Musk, maybe if he's on that first call

maybe he wants to stabilize the relationship. But ultimately, Republicans in Congress and the

entire Trump administration are oriented towards a new Cold War, decoupling the U.S. from China

economically and expanding the area of tension and concern to include a broader definition of

national security sectors, also pushing allies to hit China in the same way. All of these things

imply that we will see a tit for tat from China and the two largest economies in the world will end up not in a managed decline but an unmanaged decline And that is very significant for geopolitics and for the global economy Risk number two is rule of dawn

The founding fathers in the United States believed that rule of law was very important

and was not guaranteed. You needed checks and balances in the U.S. political system to ensure that rule of law

didn't become rule of man. Well, it turns out that we have a very strong president coming in place who's not all that interested in checks and balances

He wants to be the decider. He has much more consolidated power around him this time around than he did as a first term president, both in the GOP, the Republican Party, who are riding his coattails as opposed to the other way around

and in his administration, where he has appointed loyalists across the board

as opposed to well-established and respected Republicans like Mike Pence or Mike Pompeo

Jim Mattis, Nikki Haley, all of those folks that were meant to reassure the party faithful

that Trump wasn't going to break too much China. This time around, he's in charge

So his ability and willingness to do whatever he wants is unprecedented

It also comes on the back of Trump feeling that the Democrats and the so-called deep state used the power ministries in the United States, the Department of Justice, the FBI and others, to be weaponized against him

Investigations trying to throw him in jail. And so he wants to ensure that can't happen, that he wants to use those departments for his benefit

And that will lead to investigations. It'll lead to a chilling effect of political opponents to Trump

You also have Elon Musk, the wealthiest, most powerful individual in the private sector in the world

And his relationship and his closeness to Trump is unprecedented. Imagine if we were looking at India and the prime minister of India in his phone calls and meetings with heads of state or with CEOs had Gautam Adani take part

We would say that India was becoming an oligarchy or a kleptocracy

That's exactly what's happening in the United States right now, but it's being normalized

And it is utterly freaking out other countries around the world who are really unhappy about that development, but are scared of taking on Elon too hard because, well, he's effectively a national champion for Trump, part of the military, industrial, technological complex

And what would happen to the U.S. relationship with those countries if suddenly Elon falls out of favor

So all of that is to imply that the rule of dawn is creating a large amount of unpredictability in the global geopolitical environment

Unpredictability means risk. And our risk number one for 2025 is the G0 wins

A G0 world, a world where there are no global leaders, where every nation is for itself

that is a global disorder that we've been heading towards for a long time now because

the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia was not integrated into the West and they're angry about

it because China was integrated into the global economy but did not align with the United States

and the West politically or economically and the West is unhappy about it and because lots of people

in the West especially the United States felt like their own leaders weren't representing them

and they're angry about it. For all of those reasons, we increasingly see that leaders around

the world are less interested in an international community or common values or standards or

institutions or rules of the road, and instead doing what they want for their own benefit

In other words, we are heading towards the law of the jungle, where the powerful do what they will

and the weak do what they must. That's a dangerous place to be. The United States is not in decline

economically, from a security perspective, technologically. All of these ways, the United

States is actually much stronger than both its adversaries and its allies this year

Its adversaries, China facing all of their economic challenges at home, the Russians in

severe structural decline, Iran on the precipice having lost their empire, but also America's

allies around the world, South Korea in disarray, the Canadians, Trudeau just resigned, Germany

the government's fallen apart, France, same thing. Anywhere you look, the allies look weak. And so

they're playing defense. They're just hoping that the U.S. doesn't decide to shine a light or post

a tweet against them. This is an environment where we lack global leadership. The GZERO world

and America First are working together in lockstep. And that means more ungoverned spaces

more rogue actors, more geopolitical instability, and more conflict. That's where we're heading in 2025

want to dive deeper become a big think member and join our members only community

watch videos early and unlock full interviews