0:00
the consistent thing across Nigel
0:01
Faraj's career is one his political
0:03
success and two the fact that he falls
0:05
out with everybody all the time and that
0:08
party or organization will end and
0:10
there'll be a new one It'll be rebranded
0:11
What stays consistent is that Nigel is
0:13
at the center of it You can fall out
0:14
with a political party where all of you
0:16
can get in one cab Then you have a
0:18
problem when you're thinking what if
0:20
he's got 78 TMPs If you can't keep five
0:22
together how do you keep nearly 100 CFP
0:24
you have things like the ridiculous
0:26
stories you read of oh well someone's
0:28
child only eats chicken nuggets
0:30
therefore they can't be deported to a
0:31
country you know outside of Europe This
0:33
is absurd The public will also say this
0:36
is ridiculous And if it comes down to
0:38
we've tried every single thing except
0:40
leaving the ACR it's understandable that
0:42
a lot of people think well that is the
0:44
only way that we're going to get control
0:46
of our borders ever again
0:49
What do K star's U-turn on winter fuel
0:51
payments and Robert Genrech tackling
0:53
tube fair dodges on social media have in
0:55
common they're both reactions to
0:57
reform's storming success in the recent
0:59
local elections So given that everyone
1:02
in Westminster appears to be dancing to
1:03
his tune we have to ask is Nigel Farage
1:06
the real prime minister i'm Alice Dembi
1:09
opinion and features editor of City AM
1:11
And in this week's freeth thinking I'll
1:12
be discussing the onslaught of the
1:14
turquoise terror along with the housing
1:16
crisis the possibility of Britain
1:18
leaving the ECR and the upcoming
1:20
spending review with Emma Revel external
1:22
affairs director at the Center for
1:23
Policy Studies and of course a City AM
1:25
columnist Emma welcome back Thanks for
1:28
coming Thanks for having me back You
1:29
wrote a great column for us this week
1:31
Everyone I assume has already read it
1:33
talking about how basically Nigel Farad
1:37
really seems to be setting the agenda in
1:39
Westminster for both Labour and the
1:40
Tories They seem to be following all his
1:42
talking points whether it's on welfare
1:44
spending whether it's on immigration and
1:46
even when it just comes to the social
1:47
media strategy Why do you think
1:49
everyone's so scared well I think
1:50
they're right to be scared I think one
1:52
look at the polls will tell you why
1:53
they're scared Nigel Farage has an
1:56
incredible staying power in politics He
1:59
has run several different campaigns and
2:01
organizations and they're always sort of
2:03
he is at the center of all of them and
2:04
all of them in some way or another have
2:06
been immensely successful Um you know no
2:09
one was expecting necessarily five MPs
2:12
at the last election The local election
2:14
results were phenomenal for reform and
2:16
they are very determined to build on
2:18
that So I don't think it's a massive
2:20
surprise that Karma is trying to pivot
2:21
in that direction because Farage is
2:24
proving that he is as capable of taking
2:26
votes off Labor as he is taking them off
2:28
the Conservative Yeah And as you say
2:30
reform seemed to have pivoted to quite a
2:31
left-wing economic agenda So Nigel
2:34
Farage had a big speech I think last
2:35
week saying that reform would reverse
2:37
the cuts to winter fuel allowance and
2:39
abolish the two child welfare cap I mean
2:42
that's just a lot of spending how um
2:45
that's not the sort of thatcherite
2:47
barrage that we might have thought of
2:48
before I mean do you think it's a
2:50
credible economic agenda they're
2:52
presenting here i think it's tricky
2:53
because I think some of the things that
2:54
they're coming up with are very credible
2:56
The announcements that they've made
2:58
about sort of married couples being able
2:59
to share tax allowances for example is
3:02
very credible and it's something that is
3:03
used a lot in Europe You know the UK is
3:05
an outlier in things in things like this
3:07
and taxing people separately So some of
3:09
it is very credible and some of it is
3:11
less so I think people forget that
3:13
actually this is a political party that
3:15
is only a couple of years old They
3:17
haven't had a long time to think about
3:18
this They don't have the kind of policym
3:21
resources in house that other political
3:24
parties do I think they are going to
3:25
make missteps like this where things
3:27
don't necessarily add up or look
3:28
coherent across the board as a whole You
3:31
would hope that over time this smooths
3:33
out because if it continues it will
3:36
undermine reform's credibility If you go
3:38
into the next general election with a
3:40
package of measures that simply do not
3:42
add up and are going to cost the country
3:43
billions that's not credible But he has
3:46
got a couple of years to iron this out
3:48
We're not there yet Yeah So I mean they
3:50
went into the last election with a
3:51
manifesto that I think the IFS said it
3:53
was massively full of holes Is there not
3:55
a sort of reminder of of a sort of
3:58
turquoise Corbyn here when Corbyn Corbyn
4:01
sort of went to the election saying he
4:02
was going to give everyone free
4:03
broadband right so there was a lot of
4:05
like individual policies that people
4:06
liked but they just recognized that it
4:08
didn't add up Do you think there's a
4:09
possibility that that that's what's
4:11
ultimately going to puncture this reform
4:13
balloon when it comes to the election i
4:14
think definitely if nothing changes I
4:16
think at the last election people
4:17
weren't necessarily as focused on
4:19
reforms individual policy offerings in
4:21
their manifesto It was more of a vibe It
4:24
was more of a shift against the
4:25
conservatives It was more discontent
4:27
with immigration I think flash forward a
4:30
couple of years they are going to have a
4:31
lot longer to bed in they're going to
4:33
have a lot more track record of not just
4:35
Nigel Farage but other MPs speaking out
4:37
on other policies If in a couple of
4:39
years time that's not consistent and it
4:41
doesn't add up people will probably
4:43
respond in the way they did to Corbyn
4:44
and go "Well we like this individually
4:47
but we just don't trust you that you're
4:48
going to be able to make this happen as
4:50
a coherent package." I personally think
4:52
that while Nigel Farage is a very
4:55
compelling leader and as you set out
4:57
he's you know made so much running in
5:00
politics over decades but he's also
5:02
clearly quite an impossible person to
5:03
get along with I mean the number of
5:05
people he's sort of fallen out with and
5:06
even just today Zia Ysef I think has
5:09
fallen out with Sarah Pochin who is the
5:11
newest historian over banning the burka
5:13
like none of them can agree Yeah And I
5:16
think maybe that these personalities are
5:20
possible It the consistent thing across
5:22
Nigel Faraj's career is one his
5:24
political success and relevance and two
5:27
the fact that he falls out with
5:28
everybody all the time and that party or
5:31
organization will end and there'll be a
5:33
new one It'll be rebranded What stays
5:34
consistent is that Nigel is at the
5:36
center of it I if they're going to
5:38
really commit to a credible attempt at
5:42
being a government after the next
5:43
general election this is the I think the
5:45
most challenging thing they need to iron
5:47
out because nobody in the country is
5:49
going to want a whole government with
5:52
this level of instability at its center
5:54
You know if you can fall out with a
5:55
political party where all of you can get
5:57
in one cab then you have a problem when
6:00
you're thinking well what if he even if
6:01
he wasn't you know prime minister what
6:03
if he's got 78 TMPs m if you if you
6:06
can't keep five together how do you keep
6:08
nearly hundred together yeah exactly And
6:10
I think we've seen with Boris Johnson
6:11
what happens when you've just got a lot
6:12
of internal chaos and drama Yes Let's
6:14
not do that again Let's not do that
6:16
again please I suppose one of the main
6:18
things that reform campaign on is
6:21
obviously immigration Um it's one of the
6:23
things where they've made most gains Um
6:25
and we are now seeing the Tories maybe
6:28
the emergence of a policy um on this
6:31
which is around ignoring the ECR Is that
6:34
what they want to do having it not apply
6:36
to people who've arrived in this country
6:39
illegally is my understanding or or
6:40
immigration cases Right So a sort of
6:42
weird carve out Yeah A hybrid approach
6:45
So Yani Zoo wrote a really interesting
6:47
column in cityam last week about the
6:49
sort of myth of the ECR So there's this
6:51
idea that it's part of Churchill's
6:53
legacy that it was established um after
6:55
the war um and that somehow leaving or
6:58
withdrawing from it would be to somehow
7:01
tarnish Churchill's legacy And he picks
7:03
that apart clearly says it actually was
7:04
Atly who took us in Churchill had a lot
7:06
of complaints about it I think you know
7:09
that's definitely worth kind of just
7:11
like let's get rid of that myth But do
7:12
you think there are merits to the idea
7:14
of either leaving or overlooking the ECR
7:17
how much do you think it is actually the
7:18
block on us deporting foreign criminals
7:20
it seems to be the the primary that and
7:23
the government's ability inability to do
7:25
anything But a lot of that is linked to
7:26
the ECR I think the problem is the ECHR
7:29
has held up as some sort of you know the
7:31
way in which all of our human rights are
7:33
enshrined as if we didn't have any
7:35
legislation ourselves domestically as if
7:38
leaving the ACR would mean that there
7:39
was no human rights legislation in
7:41
Britain at all but simply not the case
7:43
or like there's no human rights in
7:44
countries like Australia or Canada which
7:46
aren't in Europe exly I think most of
7:48
the people obviously not everybody some
7:50
people will object to the ECR you know
7:52
across the board I think a lot of people
7:54
are their frustration comes from they
7:56
don't object to it as it is written They
7:58
are objecting to it in how it is
7:59
interpreted and applied specifically to
8:01
immigration when you have things like oh
8:04
you know the the ridiculous stories you
8:06
read of oh well someone's child doesn't
8:08
like chicken nugget only eats chicken
8:10
nuggets therefore they can't be deported
8:12
to a country you know outside of Europe
8:14
you like this is absurd and I think the
8:17
public will also say this is ridiculous
8:19
and if it comes down to we've tried
8:21
every single thing except leaving the
8:23
ACR it's understandable that a lot of
8:26
people think well that is the only way
8:28
that we're going to get control of our
8:29
borders ever again Do you think there's
8:32
merit for the Tories in having a sort of
8:34
credible policy on the ECR do you think
8:37
that's the way to take it to reform or
8:40
think what's the point they've lost
8:42
they've they've lost the argument on
8:44
immigration because it was under Boris
8:46
Johnson that legal migration went up so
8:48
much I think weirdly both are true I
8:50
don't think you can regain credibility
8:52
without a coherent position but I don't
8:54
think having a coherent position is
8:55
enough because the public will and
8:58
indeed the government will just always
8:59
throw back at it rose under you Yeah You
9:02
know you oversaw this massive wave of
9:04
migration You said you were going to get
9:06
it down to the tens of thousands if you
9:07
throw it back to Cameron That didn't
9:08
happen You know you're responsible for
9:10
this You need a credible position on the
9:13
UCR and on immigration to fix that But
9:15
it's not it's not going to it's not a m
9:17
it's not a silver bullet It doesn't
9:18
erase the past Jeremy Hunt made a really
9:22
interesting point this week where he
9:23
said "Look Britain is the only major
9:25
country that's currently led by a human
9:26
rights lawyer." Like Kier Starmer is in
9:29
a unique position to credibly make a new
9:32
human rights framework that everyone
9:34
could trust that was compassionate that
9:36
respected human rights but that also
9:37
gave sovereignty back to British courts
9:39
He could do that Yeah Um and I wish he
9:42
would I mean that's an interesting point
9:44
because if he were inclined to do that
9:46
he is one of the few politicians with
9:48
the professional credibility to say
9:50
"Look I'm not making this up on the hoof
9:52
I'm I'm not you know I've got an
9:54
extensive and quite senior professional
9:56
career that gives me the credibility to
9:57
talk about it but that's not where he's
9:59
at It's not where he's ever been at in
10:01
his career either." No And I think we've
10:03
seen quite a lot of controversy around
10:04
Lord Hurmer his uh attorney general just
10:06
very much I think sticking to a sort of
10:08
international law orthodoxy Um just
10:11
thinking that you know if a court tells
10:12
you to do it you have to do it Yeah And
10:15
I think that's I mean I think you know
10:16
he's very close to Karma I think that's
10:19
how Karma sees the international order
10:21
as well Yeah Well this is why we've
10:22
given away the Chaos Islands It's you
10:24
know why we're making lots of other
10:25
decisions where the you know legal
10:28
framework is is a big player Yeah It's
10:30
frustrating Now I want to talk about
10:32
something else which I know is very
10:33
close to your heart and also to mine and
10:35
CCMs which is housing Um this week a new
10:38
campaign group which I think you're part
10:39
of launch called conservative yimi um
10:42
also headed by another citym columnist
10:44
Simon Clark So tell us all about
10:47
Well I think the idea is there has been
10:50
a strong yimi movement from the center
10:52
right for a number of years Um but there
10:55
hasn't been a specific conservative
10:59
associated organization or conservative
11:01
branded organization to push for a
11:04
pro-house building move within the
11:06
Conservative party because you end up
11:08
with an issue where the Conservative
11:10
voter base is mostly older mostly
11:13
homeowners not just homeowners but
11:14
homeowners who have paid off their
11:16
mortgage They are disconnected from the
11:18
impact of the housing crisis personally
11:20
although they may see it through their
11:21
children and grandchildren and
11:24
conservative pays even the ones who are
11:26
privately you know acknowledge that we
11:28
need to support house building not just
11:30
for the conservative voter base to exist
11:32
below the age of 45 um but also for for
11:35
economic growth are reluctant to say so
11:38
publicly because they worry about what
11:40
the push back will be from their
11:42
association from their you know from
11:44
their constituency or from from voters
11:46
in their local Yeah Yeah I mean I've
11:48
remember seeing this kind of firsthand
11:49
when I worked for an MP um you know for
11:53
the southeast a very expensive part of
11:55
the country and you know you know her
11:56
constituents complain my children can't
11:58
afford to live here you know housing's
12:00
so expensive but then every time a new
12:02
development is opposed the political
12:03
dynamics are you have to oppose it stand
12:05
outside it with a placard because
12:07
otherwise you're protecting the green
12:08
belt and you're protecting people's
12:10
views from the people who already own
12:11
homes and ignoring the fact that all the
12:14
people need to buy homes we have a
12:15
massive housing deficit in this country
12:16
and we need to do something about it So
12:18
it's about having a voice that actually
12:19
sits within the Conservative party sort
12:22
of framework to go actually we need to
12:24
advocate for this one for the country
12:27
one for the voters but two for the
12:29
future of the Conservatives as a
12:31
political movement Because if you are in
12:33
a position where the age at which
12:35
someone is more likely to vote
12:36
conservative than Labor is 63
12:39
you have a problem with the future
12:41
demographics quite frankly of your voter
12:43
base Yeah absolutely and and the
12:45
politics of housing are one massive
12:47
barrier that gets in the way But I was
12:48
on a panel earlier this week at the
12:49
Business London conference which talking
12:51
about some of the other major challenges
12:53
and I think in something like 23 out of
12:56
London's 33 burers there have been no
12:59
new affordable housing starts at all in
13:01
the first quarter of this year and a
13:04
major reason for that is the building
13:05
safety act Um and this is an act that
13:07
was brought in for very good reasons
13:09
post Grenfell but it's made absurdity So
13:12
we had a developer saying "Look if I
13:14
want to build a building that is six
13:16
stories rather than five stories I have
13:18
to go through a completely different
13:19
application process and it takes 75
13:21
weeks longer." It's absurd It is And
13:24
it's things like you have to have a
13:25
second staircase which people often link
13:28
back to Grenfell but actually the
13:30
Granfell report makes no mention of this
13:32
It doesn't say that a second staircase
13:34
would have saved lives That wasn't the
13:35
issue with the Granfell tower similar to
13:38
nutrient neutrality requirements They
13:40
are things that are well-meaning there
13:41
is nothing wrong with saying we don't
13:43
want developments to have an enormous
13:45
adverse impact on the environment But if
13:47
you're saying you can have no impact
13:49
whatsoever you are quite obviously then
13:51
making it impossible to build housing
13:52
Absolutely And another major development
13:55
I suppose in terms of London housing is
13:57
Sadi Khan's announcement that uh he
14:00
wants to unlock more building in the
14:02
green belt This is something I think we
14:03
would definitely support Well I think
14:05
the problem is that the new London plan
14:06
which would make this happen is
14:08
something like 18 months away which is
14:10
clearly beyond his meril term Yes Um
14:13
likely even beyond the next parliament
14:15
So how realistic do you think building
14:19
on London's green belt is it's one of
14:21
those moments where someone makes an
14:22
announcement and you go "Thank God
14:25
Welcome to the team So glad to have you
14:27
with us Where were you before why now?"
14:29
Yeah because I think you know Sadi Khan
14:32
is very proud himself of his housing
14:35
record The problem is that housing
14:36
record is actually terrible Um the way
14:38
that he represents new housing starts is
14:41
is false Yeah Quite frankly um the
14:44
numbers simply don't add up And he likes
14:46
to tout himself as you know I'm happy to
14:48
build in London I want to support London
14:50
Um and Londoners ability to buy you know
14:53
in the city but actually if you look at
14:55
what he's done in practice it simply
14:57
doesn't add up So Sadiq it's nice to
14:59
have you right but you need to actually
15:01
do something about it Another point is
15:03
that building on the green belt is great
15:05
and it is a place where you can build
15:06
family homes for example Uh obviously
15:09
they do need to be accompanied by the
15:10
infrastructure otherwise you just have
15:12
people driving cars around being huge
15:14
congestion charges and like um but you
15:17
also need densification in the center
15:19
which is where the jobs are when young
15:21
people want to live Yeah Building on the
15:23
green belt is great but it's not the
15:24
full answer to London's housing
15:25
challenge No it's not London needs a mix
15:27
of housing just you know because it has
15:29
a mix of people and a mix of needs I
15:31
think my colleague Sam Hughes has
15:34
pointed out a statistic which is um that
15:37
if you look at the boundaries of London
15:39
today they basically map almost entirely
15:42
to the boundaries of London in 1939 So
15:44
London stops where builders put down
15:46
their tools to go to war and it has not
15:48
grown That is not true of Paris or
15:50
Frankfurt or you know international
15:51
cities that London would wish to be
15:53
competing with If we don't offer
15:56
Londoners safe secure affordable
15:58
accommodation then London's not going to
16:00
survive Ultimately you need to be able
16:02
to afford to live and work within a
16:04
reasonable commute of jobs And that
16:07
means yes we need more houses on the
16:09
green belt because the green belt is
16:10
effectively strangling London but we
16:12
also need densification tower blocks You
16:14
know people see tower blocks as a dirty
16:16
word but actually you know if you're
16:18
looking at 10 12 stories in parts of
16:21
Chelsea Kensington you know people quite
16:23
like those They think they're you know
16:25
incredibly lovely and attractive housing
16:27
So we need to do more of that as well
16:28
Yeah I think also the green belt was im
16:30
originally imagined by a sort of
16:32
Victorian conservationist I think links
16:34
to the National Trust who thought that
16:36
cities were sort of moral hazards that
16:38
needed to be contained No look London is
16:40
the best place in the world It should be
16:42
as big as possible They were dirty and
16:43
polluting probably sinful as well The
16:45
immoral element to it and we shouldn't
16:47
allow them to get too big But actually
16:49
what you've done is trap them so that
16:51
they are just suffocating Speaking of
16:53
dirty and sinful next week we have the
16:56
spending review which is where Rachel
16:58
Reeves will set out basically the
16:59
funding envelopes for each department
17:02
We've also just had the strategic
17:04
defense review which is promising to get
17:06
to what 3% but not by this not in this
17:09
parliament 3% is an ambition Yeah I
17:14
uh but NATO have basically come out this
17:16
week and said it needs to be 3.5 Bad
17:18
news guys So I guess what are we
17:20
expecting to see in the spending review
17:22
tomorrow i mean she needs to make her
17:25
numbers add up in some way And then
17:26
she's also got huge pressures to
17:29
increase funding Where do we think we
17:31
might see any cuts where might we see
17:33
some increases i think ultimately what
17:35
it's going to come down to is these are
17:37
so-called unprotected departments are
17:39
going to have to make significant cuts
17:40
in day-to-day spending She has already
17:42
pledged a significant amount I think
17:44
it's about 110 billion um for capital
17:47
projects Um which is great And earlier
17:49
this week she was talking about trams
17:50
and trains and metros and and all of
17:52
that's wonderful but those numbers are
17:54
actually quite similar to what the
17:56
previous Conservative government said
17:57
that they were going to deliver And that
17:59
didn't happen So just because you've
18:00
announced a big number doesn't actually
18:02
mean it translates into an actual
18:04
project that benefits the country and on
18:06
day-to-day spending If we're re-upping
18:09
the winter fuel allowance if there's
18:11
pressure on the two child benefit cap if
18:14
you know public sector workers want more
18:17
pay rises than are being offered Rachel
18:20
Reeves is either going to have to commit
18:21
to all of those and then where is the
18:23
money coming from we are going to see
18:26
tax hikes in the next budget or she's
18:28
not going to commit to those things and
18:30
she's going to have a real problem with
18:31
the unions and her backbenches I think
18:33
we're going to get both Frankly I think
18:35
we're going to get strikes in the summer
18:37
followed by tax rises in the autumn
18:39
Wonderful Have fun with that That's a
18:40
cheery note isn't it it probably does
18:42
feel most likely because I think the
18:44
problem she has is it doesn't matter
18:45
what she gives in terms of additional
18:47
spending increases it's never going to
18:48
be enough Exactly Um and we can't afford
18:51
them anyway Yeah Great Great I think
18:54
that's the note on which to end Cheery
18:55
Thanks so much Always a pleasure