Up next in 10
Is Nigel Farage controlling Labour's decisions? | Free Thinking
1 views
Jun 8, 2025
What do Keir Starmer's U-turn on winter fuel payments and Robert Jenrick's tackling tube fare dodgers on social media have in common? They're both reactions to Reform UK's storming success in the local elections. So, with everyone in Westminster dancing to his tune, we have to ask: Is Nigel Farage the real prime minister? In this week's Free Thinking, City AM's Opinion and Features Editor Alys Denby discusses the turquoise terror, the housing crisis and the upcoming spending review with Emma Revell, external affairs director at the Centre for Policy Studies and a City AM columnist. Read more thought-provoking Opinions here š https://www.cityam.com/opinion-2/ Get more of City AM š š http://www.cityam.com X(formerly Twitter): http://twitter.com/CityAM Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cityam Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/city_am LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/cityam Produced by: Alys Denby, Emmanuel Nwosu, Joe Lee #nigelfarage #keirstarmer #reformuk #reform #farage #starmer #uk #politics #politicalnews #economy #economics #business #businessnews #finance #financialnews #ukeconomy #uknews #ukpolitics #labour #labourparty #tories #conservative #conservativeparty #opinion #interview
View Video Transcript
0:00
the consistent thing across Nigel
0:01
Faraj's career is one his political
0:03
success and two the fact that he falls
0:05
out with everybody all the time and that
0:08
party or organization will end and
0:10
there'll be a new one It'll be rebranded
0:11
What stays consistent is that Nigel is
0:13
at the center of it You can fall out
0:14
with a political party where all of you
0:16
can get in one cab Then you have a
0:18
problem when you're thinking what if
0:20
he's got 78 TMPs If you can't keep five
0:22
together how do you keep nearly 100 CFP
0:24
you have things like the ridiculous
0:26
stories you read of oh well someone's
0:28
child only eats chicken nuggets
0:30
therefore they can't be deported to a
0:31
country you know outside of Europe This
0:33
is absurd The public will also say this
0:36
is ridiculous And if it comes down to
0:38
we've tried every single thing except
0:40
leaving the ACR it's understandable that
0:42
a lot of people think well that is the
0:44
only way that we're going to get control
0:46
of our borders ever again
0:49
What do K star's U-turn on winter fuel
0:51
payments and Robert Genrech tackling
0:53
tube fair dodges on social media have in
0:55
common they're both reactions to
0:57
reform's storming success in the recent
0:59
local elections So given that everyone
1:02
in Westminster appears to be dancing to
1:03
his tune we have to ask is Nigel Farage
1:06
the real prime minister i'm Alice Dembi
1:09
opinion and features editor of City AM
1:11
And in this week's freeth thinking I'll
1:12
be discussing the onslaught of the
1:14
turquoise terror along with the housing
1:16
crisis the possibility of Britain
1:18
leaving the ECR and the upcoming
1:20
spending review with Emma Revel external
1:22
affairs director at the Center for
1:23
Policy Studies and of course a City AM
1:25
columnist Emma welcome back Thanks for
1:28
coming Thanks for having me back You
1:29
wrote a great column for us this week
1:31
Everyone I assume has already read it
1:33
talking about how basically Nigel Farad
1:37
really seems to be setting the agenda in
1:39
Westminster for both Labour and the
1:40
Tories They seem to be following all his
1:42
talking points whether it's on welfare
1:44
spending whether it's on immigration and
1:46
even when it just comes to the social
1:47
media strategy Why do you think
1:49
everyone's so scared well I think
1:50
they're right to be scared I think one
1:52
look at the polls will tell you why
1:53
they're scared Nigel Farage has an
1:56
incredible staying power in politics He
1:59
has run several different campaigns and
2:01
organizations and they're always sort of
2:03
he is at the center of all of them and
2:04
all of them in some way or another have
2:06
been immensely successful Um you know no
2:09
one was expecting necessarily five MPs
2:12
at the last election The local election
2:14
results were phenomenal for reform and
2:16
they are very determined to build on
2:18
that So I don't think it's a massive
2:20
surprise that Karma is trying to pivot
2:21
in that direction because Farage is
2:24
proving that he is as capable of taking
2:26
votes off Labor as he is taking them off
2:28
the Conservative Yeah And as you say
2:30
reform seemed to have pivoted to quite a
2:31
left-wing economic agenda So Nigel
2:34
Farage had a big speech I think last
2:35
week saying that reform would reverse
2:37
the cuts to winter fuel allowance and
2:39
abolish the two child welfare cap I mean
2:42
that's just a lot of spending how um
2:45
that's not the sort of thatcherite
2:47
barrage that we might have thought of
2:48
before I mean do you think it's a
2:50
credible economic agenda they're
2:52
presenting here i think it's tricky
2:53
because I think some of the things that
2:54
they're coming up with are very credible
2:56
The announcements that they've made
2:58
about sort of married couples being able
2:59
to share tax allowances for example is
3:02
very credible and it's something that is
3:03
used a lot in Europe You know the UK is
3:05
an outlier in things in things like this
3:07
and taxing people separately So some of
3:09
it is very credible and some of it is
3:11
less so I think people forget that
3:13
actually this is a political party that
3:15
is only a couple of years old They
3:17
haven't had a long time to think about
3:18
this They don't have the kind of policym
3:21
resources in house that other political
3:24
parties do I think they are going to
3:25
make missteps like this where things
3:27
don't necessarily add up or look
3:28
coherent across the board as a whole You
3:31
would hope that over time this smooths
3:33
out because if it continues it will
3:36
undermine reform's credibility If you go
3:38
into the next general election with a
3:40
package of measures that simply do not
3:42
add up and are going to cost the country
3:43
billions that's not credible But he has
3:46
got a couple of years to iron this out
3:48
We're not there yet Yeah So I mean they
3:50
went into the last election with a
3:51
manifesto that I think the IFS said it
3:53
was massively full of holes Is there not
3:55
a sort of reminder of of a sort of
3:58
turquoise Corbyn here when Corbyn Corbyn
4:01
sort of went to the election saying he
4:02
was going to give everyone free
4:03
broadband right so there was a lot of
4:05
like individual policies that people
4:06
liked but they just recognized that it
4:08
didn't add up Do you think there's a
4:09
possibility that that that's what's
4:11
ultimately going to puncture this reform
4:13
balloon when it comes to the election i
4:14
think definitely if nothing changes I
4:16
think at the last election people
4:17
weren't necessarily as focused on
4:19
reforms individual policy offerings in
4:21
their manifesto It was more of a vibe It
4:24
was more of a shift against the
4:25
conservatives It was more discontent
4:27
with immigration I think flash forward a
4:30
couple of years they are going to have a
4:31
lot longer to bed in they're going to
4:33
have a lot more track record of not just
4:35
Nigel Farage but other MPs speaking out
4:37
on other policies If in a couple of
4:39
years time that's not consistent and it
4:41
doesn't add up people will probably
4:43
respond in the way they did to Corbyn
4:44
and go "Well we like this individually
4:47
but we just don't trust you that you're
4:48
going to be able to make this happen as
4:50
a coherent package." I personally think
4:52
that while Nigel Farage is a very
4:55
compelling leader and as you set out
4:57
he's you know made so much running in
5:00
politics over decades but he's also
5:02
clearly quite an impossible person to
5:03
get along with I mean the number of
5:05
people he's sort of fallen out with and
5:06
even just today Zia Ysef I think has
5:09
fallen out with Sarah Pochin who is the
5:11
newest historian over banning the burka
5:13
like none of them can agree Yeah And I
5:16
think maybe that these personalities are
5:19
just not
5:20
possible It the consistent thing across
5:22
Nigel Faraj's career is one his
5:24
political success and relevance and two
5:27
the fact that he falls out with
5:28
everybody all the time and that party or
5:31
organization will end and there'll be a
5:33
new one It'll be rebranded What stays
5:34
consistent is that Nigel is at the
5:36
center of it I if they're going to
5:38
really commit to a credible attempt at
5:42
being a government after the next
5:43
general election this is the I think the
5:45
most challenging thing they need to iron
5:47
out because nobody in the country is
5:49
going to want a whole government with
5:52
this level of instability at its center
5:54
You know if you can fall out with a
5:55
political party where all of you can get
5:57
in one cab then you have a problem when
6:00
you're thinking well what if he even if
6:01
he wasn't you know prime minister what
6:03
if he's got 78 TMPs m if you if you
6:06
can't keep five together how do you keep
6:08
nearly hundred together yeah exactly And
6:10
I think we've seen with Boris Johnson
6:11
what happens when you've just got a lot
6:12
of internal chaos and drama Yes Let's
6:14
not do that again Let's not do that
6:16
again please I suppose one of the main
6:18
things that reform campaign on is
6:21
obviously immigration Um it's one of the
6:23
things where they've made most gains Um
6:25
and we are now seeing the Tories maybe
6:28
the emergence of a policy um on this
6:31
which is around ignoring the ECR Is that
6:34
what they want to do having it not apply
6:36
to people who've arrived in this country
6:39
illegally is my understanding or or
6:40
immigration cases Right So a sort of
6:42
weird carve out Yeah A hybrid approach
6:45
So Yani Zoo wrote a really interesting
6:47
column in cityam last week about the
6:49
sort of myth of the ECR So there's this
6:51
idea that it's part of Churchill's
6:53
legacy that it was established um after
6:55
the war um and that somehow leaving or
6:58
withdrawing from it would be to somehow
7:01
tarnish Churchill's legacy And he picks
7:03
that apart clearly says it actually was
7:04
Atly who took us in Churchill had a lot
7:06
of complaints about it I think you know
7:09
that's definitely worth kind of just
7:11
like let's get rid of that myth But do
7:12
you think there are merits to the idea
7:14
of either leaving or overlooking the ECR
7:17
how much do you think it is actually the
7:18
block on us deporting foreign criminals
7:20
it seems to be the the primary that and
7:23
the government's ability inability to do
7:25
anything But a lot of that is linked to
7:26
the ECR I think the problem is the ECHR
7:29
has held up as some sort of you know the
7:31
way in which all of our human rights are
7:33
enshrined as if we didn't have any
7:35
legislation ourselves domestically as if
7:38
leaving the ACR would mean that there
7:39
was no human rights legislation in
7:41
Britain at all but simply not the case
7:43
or like there's no human rights in
7:44
countries like Australia or Canada which
7:46
aren't in Europe exly I think most of
7:48
the people obviously not everybody some
7:50
people will object to the ECR you know
7:52
across the board I think a lot of people
7:54
are their frustration comes from they
7:56
don't object to it as it is written They
7:58
are objecting to it in how it is
7:59
interpreted and applied specifically to
8:01
immigration when you have things like oh
8:04
you know the the ridiculous stories you
8:06
read of oh well someone's child doesn't
8:08
like chicken nugget only eats chicken
8:10
nuggets therefore they can't be deported
8:12
to a country you know outside of Europe
8:14
you like this is absurd and I think the
8:17
public will also say this is ridiculous
8:19
and if it comes down to we've tried
8:21
every single thing except leaving the
8:23
ACR it's understandable that a lot of
8:26
people think well that is the only way
8:28
that we're going to get control of our
8:29
borders ever again Do you think there's
8:32
merit for the Tories in having a sort of
8:34
credible policy on the ECR do you think
8:37
that's the way to take it to reform or
8:39
do you
8:40
think what's the point they've lost
8:42
they've they've lost the argument on
8:44
immigration because it was under Boris
8:46
Johnson that legal migration went up so
8:48
much I think weirdly both are true I
8:50
don't think you can regain credibility
8:52
without a coherent position but I don't
8:54
think having a coherent position is
8:55
enough because the public will and
8:58
indeed the government will just always
8:59
throw back at it rose under you Yeah You
9:02
know you oversaw this massive wave of
9:04
migration You said you were going to get
9:06
it down to the tens of thousands if you
9:07
throw it back to Cameron That didn't
9:08
happen You know you're responsible for
9:10
this You need a credible position on the
9:13
UCR and on immigration to fix that But
9:15
it's not it's not going to it's not a m
9:17
it's not a silver bullet It doesn't
9:18
erase the past Jeremy Hunt made a really
9:22
interesting point this week where he
9:23
said "Look Britain is the only major
9:25
country that's currently led by a human
9:26
rights lawyer." Like Kier Starmer is in
9:29
a unique position to credibly make a new
9:32
human rights framework that everyone
9:34
could trust that was compassionate that
9:36
respected human rights but that also
9:37
gave sovereignty back to British courts
9:39
He could do that Yeah Um and I wish he
9:42
would I mean that's an interesting point
9:44
because if he were inclined to do that
9:46
he is one of the few politicians with
9:48
the professional credibility to say
9:50
"Look I'm not making this up on the hoof
9:52
I'm I'm not you know I've got an
9:54
extensive and quite senior professional
9:56
career that gives me the credibility to
9:57
talk about it but that's not where he's
9:59
at It's not where he's ever been at in
10:01
his career either." No And I think we've
10:03
seen quite a lot of controversy around
10:04
Lord Hurmer his uh attorney general just
10:06
very much I think sticking to a sort of
10:08
international law orthodoxy Um just
10:11
thinking that you know if a court tells
10:12
you to do it you have to do it Yeah And
10:15
I think that's I mean I think you know
10:16
he's very close to Karma I think that's
10:19
how Karma sees the international order
10:21
as well Yeah Well this is why we've
10:22
given away the Chaos Islands It's you
10:24
know why we're making lots of other
10:25
decisions where the you know legal
10:28
framework is is a big player Yeah It's
10:30
frustrating Now I want to talk about
10:32
something else which I know is very
10:33
close to your heart and also to mine and
10:35
CCMs which is housing Um this week a new
10:38
campaign group which I think you're part
10:39
of launch called conservative yimi um
10:42
also headed by another citym columnist
10:44
Simon Clark So tell us all about
10:46
everywhere
10:47
Well I think the idea is there has been
10:50
a strong yimi movement from the center
10:52
right for a number of years Um but there
10:55
hasn't been a specific conservative
10:59
associated organization or conservative
11:01
branded organization to push for a
11:04
pro-house building move within the
11:06
Conservative party because you end up
11:08
with an issue where the Conservative
11:10
voter base is mostly older mostly
11:13
homeowners not just homeowners but
11:14
homeowners who have paid off their
11:16
mortgage They are disconnected from the
11:18
impact of the housing crisis personally
11:20
although they may see it through their
11:21
children and grandchildren and
11:24
conservative pays even the ones who are
11:26
privately you know acknowledge that we
11:28
need to support house building not just
11:30
for the conservative voter base to exist
11:32
below the age of 45 um but also for for
11:35
economic growth are reluctant to say so
11:38
publicly because they worry about what
11:40
the push back will be from their
11:42
association from their you know from
11:44
their constituency or from from voters
11:46
in their local Yeah Yeah I mean I've
11:48
remember seeing this kind of firsthand
11:49
when I worked for an MP um you know for
11:53
the southeast a very expensive part of
11:55
the country and you know you know her
11:56
constituents complain my children can't
11:58
afford to live here you know housing's
12:00
so expensive but then every time a new
12:02
development is opposed the political
12:03
dynamics are you have to oppose it stand
12:05
outside it with a placard because
12:07
otherwise you're protecting the green
12:08
belt and you're protecting people's
12:10
views from the people who already own
12:11
homes and ignoring the fact that all the
12:14
people need to buy homes we have a
12:15
massive housing deficit in this country
12:16
and we need to do something about it So
12:18
it's about having a voice that actually
12:19
sits within the Conservative party sort
12:22
of framework to go actually we need to
12:24
advocate for this one for the country
12:27
one for the voters but two for the
12:29
future of the Conservatives as a
12:31
political movement Because if you are in
12:33
a position where the age at which
12:35
someone is more likely to vote
12:36
conservative than Labor is 63
12:39
you have a problem with the future
12:41
demographics quite frankly of your voter
12:43
base Yeah absolutely and and the
12:45
politics of housing are one massive
12:47
barrier that gets in the way But I was
12:48
on a panel earlier this week at the
12:49
Business London conference which talking
12:51
about some of the other major challenges
12:53
and I think in something like 23 out of
12:56
London's 33 burers there have been no
12:59
new affordable housing starts at all in
13:01
the first quarter of this year and a
13:04
major reason for that is the building
13:05
safety act Um and this is an act that
13:07
was brought in for very good reasons
13:09
post Grenfell but it's made absurdity So
13:12
we had a developer saying "Look if I
13:14
want to build a building that is six
13:16
stories rather than five stories I have
13:18
to go through a completely different
13:19
application process and it takes 75
13:21
weeks longer." It's absurd It is And
13:24
it's things like you have to have a
13:25
second staircase which people often link
13:28
back to Grenfell but actually the
13:30
Granfell report makes no mention of this
13:32
It doesn't say that a second staircase
13:34
would have saved lives That wasn't the
13:35
issue with the Granfell tower similar to
13:38
nutrient neutrality requirements They
13:40
are things that are well-meaning there
13:41
is nothing wrong with saying we don't
13:43
want developments to have an enormous
13:45
adverse impact on the environment But if
13:47
you're saying you can have no impact
13:49
whatsoever you are quite obviously then
13:51
making it impossible to build housing
13:52
Absolutely And another major development
13:55
I suppose in terms of London housing is
13:57
Sadi Khan's announcement that uh he
14:00
wants to unlock more building in the
14:02
green belt This is something I think we
14:03
would definitely support Well I think
14:05
the problem is that the new London plan
14:06
which would make this happen is
14:08
something like 18 months away which is
14:10
clearly beyond his meril term Yes Um
14:13
likely even beyond the next parliament
14:15
So how realistic do you think building
14:19
on London's green belt is it's one of
14:21
those moments where someone makes an
14:22
announcement and you go "Thank God
14:25
Welcome to the team So glad to have you
14:27
with us Where were you before why now?"
14:29
Yeah because I think you know Sadi Khan
14:32
is very proud himself of his housing
14:35
record The problem is that housing
14:36
record is actually terrible Um the way
14:38
that he represents new housing starts is
14:41
is false Yeah Quite frankly um the
14:44
numbers simply don't add up And he likes
14:46
to tout himself as you know I'm happy to
14:48
build in London I want to support London
14:50
Um and Londoners ability to buy you know
14:53
in the city but actually if you look at
14:55
what he's done in practice it simply
14:57
doesn't add up So Sadiq it's nice to
14:59
have you right but you need to actually
15:01
do something about it Another point is
15:03
that building on the green belt is great
15:05
and it is a place where you can build
15:06
family homes for example Uh obviously
15:09
they do need to be accompanied by the
15:10
infrastructure otherwise you just have
15:12
people driving cars around being huge
15:14
congestion charges and like um but you
15:17
also need densification in the center
15:19
which is where the jobs are when young
15:21
people want to live Yeah Building on the
15:23
green belt is great but it's not the
15:24
full answer to London's housing
15:25
challenge No it's not London needs a mix
15:27
of housing just you know because it has
15:29
a mix of people and a mix of needs I
15:31
think my colleague Sam Hughes has
15:34
pointed out a statistic which is um that
15:37
if you look at the boundaries of London
15:39
today they basically map almost entirely
15:42
to the boundaries of London in 1939 So
15:44
London stops where builders put down
15:46
their tools to go to war and it has not
15:48
grown That is not true of Paris or
15:50
Frankfurt or you know international
15:51
cities that London would wish to be
15:53
competing with If we don't offer
15:56
Londoners safe secure affordable
15:58
accommodation then London's not going to
16:00
survive Ultimately you need to be able
16:02
to afford to live and work within a
16:04
reasonable commute of jobs And that
16:07
means yes we need more houses on the
16:09
green belt because the green belt is
16:10
effectively strangling London but we
16:12
also need densification tower blocks You
16:14
know people see tower blocks as a dirty
16:16
word but actually you know if you're
16:18
looking at 10 12 stories in parts of
16:21
Chelsea Kensington you know people quite
16:23
like those They think they're you know
16:25
incredibly lovely and attractive housing
16:27
So we need to do more of that as well
16:28
Yeah I think also the green belt was im
16:30
originally imagined by a sort of
16:32
Victorian conservationist I think links
16:34
to the National Trust who thought that
16:36
cities were sort of moral hazards that
16:38
needed to be contained No look London is
16:40
the best place in the world It should be
16:42
as big as possible They were dirty and
16:43
polluting probably sinful as well The
16:45
immoral element to it and we shouldn't
16:47
allow them to get too big But actually
16:49
what you've done is trap them so that
16:51
they are just suffocating Speaking of
16:53
dirty and sinful next week we have the
16:56
spending review which is where Rachel
16:58
Reeves will set out basically the
16:59
funding envelopes for each department
17:02
We've also just had the strategic
17:04
defense review which is promising to get
17:06
to what 3% but not by this not in this
17:09
parliament 3% is an ambition Yeah I
17:11
think by 2027
17:14
uh but NATO have basically come out this
17:16
week and said it needs to be 3.5 Bad
17:18
news guys So I guess what are we
17:20
expecting to see in the spending review
17:22
tomorrow i mean she needs to make her
17:25
numbers add up in some way And then
17:26
she's also got huge pressures to
17:29
increase funding Where do we think we
17:31
might see any cuts where might we see
17:33
some increases i think ultimately what
17:35
it's going to come down to is these are
17:37
so-called unprotected departments are
17:39
going to have to make significant cuts
17:40
in day-to-day spending She has already
17:42
pledged a significant amount I think
17:44
it's about 110 billion um for capital
17:47
projects Um which is great And earlier
17:49
this week she was talking about trams
17:50
and trains and metros and and all of
17:52
that's wonderful but those numbers are
17:54
actually quite similar to what the
17:56
previous Conservative government said
17:57
that they were going to deliver And that
17:59
didn't happen So just because you've
18:00
announced a big number doesn't actually
18:02
mean it translates into an actual
18:04
project that benefits the country and on
18:06
day-to-day spending If we're re-upping
18:09
the winter fuel allowance if there's
18:11
pressure on the two child benefit cap if
18:14
you know public sector workers want more
18:17
pay rises than are being offered Rachel
18:20
Reeves is either going to have to commit
18:21
to all of those and then where is the
18:23
money coming from we are going to see
18:26
tax hikes in the next budget or she's
18:28
not going to commit to those things and
18:30
she's going to have a real problem with
18:31
the unions and her backbenches I think
18:33
we're going to get both Frankly I think
18:35
we're going to get strikes in the summer
18:37
followed by tax rises in the autumn
18:39
Wonderful Have fun with that That's a
18:40
cheery note isn't it it probably does
18:42
feel most likely because I think the
18:44
problem she has is it doesn't matter
18:45
what she gives in terms of additional
18:47
spending increases it's never going to
18:48
be enough Exactly Um and we can't afford
18:51
them anyway Yeah Great Great I think
18:54
that's the note on which to end Cheery
18:55
Thanks so much Always a pleasure
19:02
[Music]
#Politics